In this year of so many and so many important elections, far beyond just the US presidential election with its eternal 2-party conundrum, “Confidence and Supply” was the expression used to describe a possible formula for forming a government following South Africa’s May 29th elections. In that election, no single party won a clear majority. Confidence and Supply was an option that would have seen the ANC in power propped up by other minority parties. The conditions were that these other parties were allowed to vote freely for whatever policies and motions they liked at the legislative level. But crucially they would agree to not vote against the government in a motion of no-confidence or any other such motion which would remove the ANC from power. Thus keeping the government in power but not forcing the minor parties to support policies which they were against.
This sort of agreement is reportedly used in Canada and other countries. In the end, the Confidence and Supply arrangement was not chosen, and the ANC chose to go into a conventional coalition or “Government of National Unity” with some minority parties instead.
The point here is that it was fascinating to see South African politics enter a 3-5 party system with, so far, relative ease. Meanwhile, the world’s most famous Western-styled democracy, the one in the US, continues to contort itself seemingly handcuffed to a now surely ancient two-party system.
That contortion, doom, and age could not be better summed up than by the facts, personalities, and performances of the presidential debate of June 27th. A superpower and its population stuck and forced to choose between a convicted criminal, serial liar, and insurrectionist Donald Trump, or an 81-year old, genocide-enabling, and war-brewing Joe Biden.
The debate night in the US was indeed Biden’s moment to give the confidence, to reassure he could still “finish the job”. With that confidence in the bag, he would be supplied with support from the Democratic establishment, its donors, and the array of media and celebrities that, in the end, will tow the Democratic line and endorse the Democratic candidate when it comes to the race regardless of who they would have truly liked to have been the candidate.
With Biden’s poor performance at the first presidential debate, we have seen the collapse of the supply of confidence in him!
After the debate, which was seen as a disaster by many if not all major pundits, Biden, his aides, and die-hard supporters offered various excuses and explanations ranging from jet lag, fatigue, and even a cold.
Some of these might have been true, but some of them were definitely made up, particularly the jet lag since Biden had been at home preparing for two weeks. In the end, we must remember that he called this debate not Trump!
In this case, when it comes to trying to restore confidence, someone having to reassert their suitability for what is often referred to as the “world’s most demanding job”, that reassertion and the need to reassert it for two weeks and counting after the debate is, in and of itself, a sign that this might be all over for Biden.
Isn’t the conversation itself and its persistence a fait accompli?
Biden has lost confidence, demanding it back while providing nothing new to cement that foundation does not seem like a way for it to return.
Another vital question, which those such as Seymour Hersh have already noted, is “well if he isn’t fit to run for the race in November, is he fit to be in charge right now?” Since he is currently in that role, never mind November, or four and a half years from now!
So if they do drop him for another candidate has he not already then disqualified himself for the rest of this term?
Overall, was this not obvious? Was this not what the Bernie Sanders supporters were supposed to swallow back in 2016 and 2020? “Bernie is too old!” They were told, “Biden is fine and younger!” But Biden is now much older than Bernie was when he tried to run. Might we add that Bernie is still older, but he is still more compos mentis and able to deliver clear-eyed firebrand speeches at length. So perhaps we need reminding, that it was never about age, or ability for that matter, Biden was the establishment candidate and that’s it! Or at least it was until the debate.
If Biden’s fate as the presidential candidate is not something that can be sealed in one act then perhaps it's still up to his party, his donors, the broader media, and the liberal/Democrat part of American politics to weigh in on the matter.
If we needed to gather some nails for the proverbial coffin, rather than there just being one, in addition to the growing comments from numerous Democrats from Congress and the Senate, here are three more “nails” that we think show us of things to come.
Cue none other than the Editorial Board of the New York Times, who published a piece with this as its headline right after the debate: “To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race”. They explained several internal party and White House dynamics but key to their observations was a theme about confidence:
“Investors like confidence. That performance took away confidence at a time that it was needed”
The Economist’s August 5th cover page speaks for itself:
If this was the view from some of the traditional liberal intelligentsia what about the lighter softer side, from the New York late-night comedy heavyweights? Well, sadly for Biden, both Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart delivered their jokes and comments with the same general conclusion, he needs to step aside. Or there at least needs to be a serious conversation maybe even a contest.
The main historical Democrat one-term president that people are thinking of concerning this is the late Lyndon B. Johnson. Of course, nothing is a perfect comparison, but a president who is overshadowed by a foreign war, in Biden’s case 2, that is not going well and a nationwide student protest movement against him, this all does remind us of 1968 far more than Biden would like.
So what happens next? Well, ideas are floating around, and names are floating around: Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, The Democratic National Convention, and an open contest. At this stage, it's still all ideas and names but the loss of confidence, the stumbling, the coffin, and the nails are certainly all there laid out for us to see.
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